Market Views & News

NYT article of an interview with Obama aboard Air Force One.

Q: Have you gotten a new appreciation at all, or maybe a little sympathy for what your predecessors went through in terms of a president can’t control all the events?

The Wall Street Journal's "Abreast of the Market" column examines whether the S&P 500 can fall to 500. Pricing stocks is a problem for everyone:

- Goldman Sachs' David Kostin in late Feb presented 3 scenarios for the S&P 500, including a bear case that put the index at 400 to 500.
- Although Kostin says he does not anticipate the index will fall that low, he said "these are the cases that different types of investors are making"
- Kostin himself offered his own prognosis, in which the S&P stays between 650 and 750 and possibly rises to 940 at year end.

I'll post commentary and charts later. Time for a little R&R.

JAN CONSUMER CREDIT: +$1.8B V -$5.0BE
- prior revised from -$6.6B to -$7.5B

An increase? I'll have to delve into this one further.

A short covering run up into the close? No telling. I certainly wouldn't buy anything hoping for a pop up next week. Let this market prove it is serious about a rally before going "long."

How does one spin these numbers as positive? Already some are saying "wow, those numbers are so bad, they can't get worse." If the official unemployment rate is now 8.1%, you can be sure the real unemployment rate is much higher.

FEB CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLL: -651K V -650KE; CHANGE IN MANUFACTURING PAYROLLS: -168K V -200KE
- Prior Dec Nonfarm revised Lower from -598K to -655K
- Prior Dec Manufacturing revised from -207K to -257K
**Revision of Jan to -655K is the lowest reading since Oct 1949 when it hit -834K

FEB UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 8.1% V 7.9%E - HIGHEST SINCE DEC 1983